Not everything is Lula and Bolsonaro in the elections in Brazil: What else is voted on this Sunday?
The dispute over Congress in a scenario of chronic fragmentation
The multiplicity of political groups makes uphill any attempt to control Congress and whoever wins the presidency will have to negotiate with the so-called “Centrao”, an informal bloc of a conservative nature on which governability in Brazil largely depends.
More of 10,000 candidates will seek a seat in the Chamber of Deputies and 241 in the Senate, the highest numbers since the early years of democracy, in the late 1980s.
More than 85% of federal deputies and 20 of the 27 governors will seek re-election, with a high probability of success, according to analysts.
They will also seek to repeat in office 13 of the 27 senators in contention, including former soccer star Romario, candidate for the Bolsonarist Freedom Party (PL).
Brazilian politics is plagued by a chronic fragmentation –A score of groups populate the Congress–, but for the first time the parties will be able to group themselves into federations, which must remain united for at least four years.
Even so, it is difficult to predict the balance of forces that will take effect on January 1, 2023.
The left, with the PT in the lead, could grow from the current 121 seats to around 150, while the “Centrao” and the Bolsonaristas will compete for the most conservative electorate, according to analysts.
“The Centrao and the Bolsonarist groups will enter into a fratricidal struggle for the remaining spaces“, wrote the political scientist Ricardo de Joao Braga on the site Congresso em Foco.
Of the more than 28,000 candidates, the majority define themselves as mestizos or blacks (50.3%), a first.
This boom is possibly driven by another novelty of this election: for the distribution of public campaign funds to the parties, each vote of women and black candidates will count for two, due to an electoral amendment to promote greater representation in parliament.
There’s also local candidates with great symbolism.
At the regional assembly of Rio de Janeiro, Renata Souza, a black woman from the favelas, is presented for re-election, seen as the replacement of the murdered Marielle Franco at the forefront of the fight against racism.